Alex De Mostafa's Articles in Real Estate

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Fifteen Common Lies Realtors Tell Realtors are agents of sellers. It is their job to obtain the highest possible sale price for a piece of real estate. The most common ploy realtors use it to attempt to create a sense of urgency in a buyer. In a seller's market, prices are rising, and buyers already feel a sense of urgency. In a buyer's market, prices are falling, and there is no urgency on the part of buyers. This fact does not stop realtors from trying to create urgency even if the truth is cast asunder. If You Are Underwater but Can Afford the Mortgage Payment You Should Hang On Anyone that can manage their payments should consider trying to hold on, even if the house value has dropped well below their purchase price. There are still a great many overextended homeowners and speculators who cannot possibly manage their payments, and for them trying to hold on until the market comes back is a foolish waste of time and resources. The market is not going to come back before they go under. However, for those who can make the payments, there emotional benefit of home ownership may be worth the financial hardship it entails. The Pent-Up-Demand Meme Is Complete Nonsense The realtor spin about "pent up demand" is complete nonsense. There is probably a lot of pent up desire for housing, but demand is measured in dollars, and there is a major lack of demand with the absence of lender funds, and a large and growing "pent up supply" of foreclosures. Regulatory Solutions to Prevent the Next Housing Bubble The regulatory solution proposed herein is simple, yet far reaching. It comes in two parts, the first is to limit the amount lenders can loan to borrowers with a rather unique enforcement mechanism, and the second is to increase the penalties for borrowers who commit mortgage fraud. The following is not in legalese, but it contains the conceptual framework of potential legislation that could be enacted on the state and/or federal level. Changing Appraisal Methods would Prevent the Next Housing Bubble Investor confidence in the market for CDOs and all mortgages was shaken during the decline of the Great Housing Bubble, and rightly so. Investors were losing huge sums, and nobody clearly understood why. There was a widespread belief these losses were caused by some outside factor rather than a systemic problem enabled by the lenders and investors themselves. Know Your Rights - Info For Renters, Patients, And Employees It is important to know what your rights are and what to do if they are violated. Housing Bubble Economic Problems - Have We Seen the Worst? The foremost problem resulting from the deflation of the Great Housing Bubble was the imperilment of our banking and financial system. The bailouts emanating from Congress have mostly focused on keeping the banking system solvent. Considering most institutions were secretly bankrupted by the housing collapse, this was not small problem. The economic ramifications are severe, and 2009 will likely not be the end of the crisis. Future Housing Bubbles - Should We Prevent Them? The deflation of housing bubbles is very financially and emotionally painful, and if possible, housing bubbles should be avoided. The pain of the deflation of a housing bubble cannot be avoided by trying to keep the bubble inflated, or by trying to deflate it slowly. The only way to avoid these problems is to prevent the bubble from inflating in the first place through some form of intervention in the mortgage market. Intervention can take the form of a market-based intervention demanded by investors and ratings agencies, and it can also come about through direct government regulation. In a Buyer's Market the First Offer is the Best Offer The most counter-intuitive part of buying in a buyer's market is to make the first offer the best offer. Ordinarily sellers, or more accurately the seller's realtor, try to create a sense of urgency to buy the house. They want the buyer to think other people are looking, there is going to be a bidding war, and the buyer needs to get an offer in today. Realtors thrive by creating fear in buyers. Distressed Sellers - Should They Attempt a Short Sale? A short sale is a property closing where the proceeds from the closing do not satisfy the outstanding debt on the property. The lender must agree to accept less money at the closing table for the closing to occur. From a credit perspective, there is little or no difference between a short sale and a foreclosure. Both a short sale and a foreclosure will show a series of missed payments and a secured credit line (or multiple credit lines) with a permanent delinquency and discharge for what is generally a very large sum of money. Both will have a strong, negative impact on the borrower's FICO credit score that will persist for many years. The Housing Bubble - What Buyers Need to Know During the decline of house prices in the deflation of the Great Housing Bubble, price levels will fall to fundamental valuations of historic levels of appreciation, price-to-rent ratios, and price-to-income ratios. The nominal price declines may be impacted by inflation and monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, but inflation adjusted prices will fall precipitously. Buying and Selling Real Estate during a Decline Residential real estate markets generally move very slowly and trend in a single direction for long periods of time. Once these markets reach an inflection point, the direction of price movement changes, and the balance of negotiating power shifts from an advantage to one side to an advantage for the other. However, most market participants do not recognize this change for some time. Sellers continue to price and attempt to sell using tactics that worked during the rally, and they find they are unable to sell their properties. It often takes two years or more before sellers accept the reality of the new market and adjust their attitudes and behaviors to the new dynamics of a buyer's market. Understanding The Popularity Of Real Estate In Collingwood, Ontario If you have been reading real estate news lately, you're probably wondering why there's so much fuss about property in the Collingwood area of Ontario and why the buzz these days is about how buying or renting property there is such a great idea. What to Do When the Sale Price of a Home Does Not Pay Off a Mortgage Once a price decline gets underway many buyers who were late to the price rally find they are in a property worth less than they paid for it. As prices continue to fall, many find themselves "underwater" owing more on their mortgage than their property is worth. When these late buyers want to become sellers, they cannot sell and pay off the mortgage balance with the proceeds from the sale. Then they have a real problem. Unemployment and Residential Real Estate Markets Prior to the Great Housing Bubble, house price declines had only been associated with economic downturns and increases in unemployment. As people lost jobs, they lost their ability to make house payments, and many lost their homes in foreclosure. Unemployment is devastating to housing markets. Foreclosures and Residential Real Estate Markets The number of foreclosures will affect both the timing and the severity of the deflation of the Great Housing Bubble. It is foreclosures that drive prices lower quickly. Foreclosures control the timing of the crash because they directly impact the must-sell inventory numbers: the greater the number of foreclosures, the greater the rate of decline in house prices. By early 2008, most real estate markets had already surpassed the peak set in the price decline of the early 90s of Notices of Default and Trustee Sales (foreclosures). It Is Different This Time... Not! Each time the general public creates an asset bubble, they believe the rally in prices is justifiable by fundamentals. When proven methods of valuation demonstrate otherwise, people invent new ones with the caveat, "it is different this time." It never is. Renting Versus Owning Residential Real Estate Renting versus owning is both an intellectual, financial decision and an emotional decision. The financial decision is first and foremost an analysis of the comparative cost of renting versus owning. It makes no sense to pay more than rental equivalence to own residential real estate. Many people still do because they are chasing the fantasy of endless appreciation and real estate wealth, but most of these people will find the increased cost of ownership over time negates any appreciation advantage they may obtain. Also, many people have found out painfully that property does not always appreciate in value. A Few Tips For Getting Started In Real Estate Investing Real estate has long been considered as one of the better investments available. Housing Bubble - Why Should Anyone Care? Why should anyone care about financial bubbles in general and the housing bubble in particular? The first and most obvious reason is that the financial fallout is stressful. Many people lost a great deal of money. Beyond that, the housing bubble had enormous impact on the health of individuals, families and entire communities. 10 Reasons Why You Should Invest in Costa Rica Real Estate I have been living in Costa Rica for 3 years now. Here is 10 reasons for you to invest in properties in Costa Rica. Real Estate Bubble Fallacies - Can You Identify Them? There are a number of fallacies about residential real estate that either affirm the belief in perpetually rising prices or minimize the fears of a price decline. These fallacies generally revolve around a perceived shortage of housing or a belief that the higher prices are justified by current or future economic conditions. These misperceptions are not the core mechanism of an asset price bubble, but they serve to affirm the core beliefs and perpetuate the price rally. Subprime Containment Theory Was a Lie Conventional wisdom (or market spin) was that the risk of default from subprime would not spill over into Alt-A and Prime loans. This argument was made because these two categories have historically had low default rates. Of course, this argument ignored the "liar loans" taken out by those with higher credit scores, the unmanageable debt-to-income ratios, and payment resets for interest-only and Option ARM loans which were also given to the Alt-A and Prime crowd. Historically, this group had not defaulted because they have not been widely exposed to these loan types. Home Equity - What is It? Many people who purchase real estate have no idea what equity is, what creates it, what destroys it, and what to do with it. People who purchase real estate use the phrase "building equity" to describe the overall increase in equity over time. However, it is important to look at the factors which either create or destroy equity to see how market conditions and financing terms impact this all-important feature of real estate. Interest Rate Resets on an Adjustable Rate Mortgages Are a Problem Many people took out adjustable rate mortgages during the Great Housing Bubble. After 25 years of steadily declining interest rates, people forgot about, or never knew about the risk of rising interest rates and what it would do to their housing payments. Adjustable rate mortgages are great while interest rates are declining. Their payments are lower than fixed rate mortgages, and as interest rates decline, they become an even better deal. However, when interest rates go up again, these loans will become a nightmare. Real Estate Investment versus Real Estate Speculation - What is the Difference? Owner-occupied residential real estate is viewed by many people as a good investment. Realtors often use this idea as part of their sales pitch. This view is fallacious and it is one of the beliefs responsible for creating an asset price bubble. To understand why houses are not a great investment in most circumstances, one needs to understand the difference between investment and speculation. Low Mortgage Interest Rates, It Is a Bad Time to Buy A House The fluctuation in mortgage interest rates has implications for when it the best time to buy and the best time to refinance a home mortgage. It is a popular misconception that low interest rates make for a good buying opportunity. It is not. Buy when interest rates are high, and refinance when interest rates are low. Real Estate Only Goes Up... Not! The mantra of the National Association of Realtors is "real estate only goes up." This economic fallacy fosters the belief in future price increases and the limited risk of buying real estate. In 2006, prices in many markets began to fall. By 2008, the rate of price decline had greatly accelerated. This is dramatic proof that real estate does not always go up. Despite this obvious fact, the National Association of Realtors still tries to lure greedy buyers with fantasies of unlimited wealth in residential real estate. Higher Interest Rates and Residential Real Estate Markets - What Would Happen? A key factor impacting the fundamental value of housing and thereby the bottom is interest rates. Higher interest rates would devastate residential real estate markets. When interest rates go up, the amounts borrowed go down assuming a consistent payment. As amounts borrowed go down, so do real estate prices. Debt-to-Income Ratios Impact on Residential Real Estate Markets The debt-to-income ratio is a measure of how far buyers are "stretching" to buy real estate. Buyers have historically committed larger sums to purchase real estate when prices are rising in order to capture the appreciation of rising prices. Conversely, buyers have historically committed smaller and smaller percentages of their income toward buying real estate when prices are declining because there is little incentive to overpay. Some may look at this phenomenon as a passive effect of the rise and fall of prices, but since buying is a choice, the fluctuation in debt-to-income ratios is an active force on prices in the market. Hyperinflation and the Housing Market The Federal Reserve under Ben Bernanke began aggressively lowering interest rates at the end of 2007 in response to the severe economic downturn caused by the collapse of house prices and the related difficulties falling house prices had on the banks and other institutions that made loans using houses as collateral. Many are concerned that these policies will ignite a period of hyperinflation in the United States. Housing Market Bottom - Price-to-Income Ratio Estimates One method used to evaluation residential real estate prices is the price-to-income ratio. Since people borrow the vast majority of the funds necessary to purchase residential real estate, and this borrowing must be financed from current income, the ratio of house prices to rent is a useful barometer of market valuation. Housing Market Bottom - Price-to-Rent Ratio Estimates Comparative rent is the primary method of evaluating the fundamental value of any property. The price-to-rent ratio links the cost of ownership with the cost of rental. This link is direct because possession of property can be obtained by either method. The cost of ownership encapsulates all of the financing terms and other variables associated with possession of real estate as does the cost of rental. Price-to-rent ratio fluctuates over time as changes in the cost of ownership and terms of financing makes financing amounts vary and house prices vary as well. House Prices Fall - How Low Will They Go? Despite the difficulty in market forecasting, many who have examined the residential real estate market point to continued declines through 2009 and beyond. The most likely scenario has resale residential real estate markets bottoming in 2011 at prices 30% off the peak nationally. Future House Prices are Dependent upon Future Loan Terms Every homebuyer operating in the deflation of the Great Housing Bubble needs to consider what loan terms will be available in the future. At some point, most buyers become sellers. The future buyer will likely need to borrow most of the money necessary to complete a real estate transaction. The availability of credit and the loan terms this future buyer will face is the primary determinant of the price this buyer will pay for real estate. 3 Steps To Finding The Perfect Piece Of Real Estate Are you looking to purchase a piece of real estate? Whether you are purchasing residential, commercial, or investment properties, you can use the 3 steps outlined in this article to ensure that you get the property you need. Housing Bubbles as Cultural Pathology What is a Cultural Pathology? There are certain beliefs if widely held and acted upon by a group of people leads inevitably to collective suffering and personal destruction. The housing bubble was a form of cultural pathology. It spawned a number of beliefs and actions that caused people to lose their houses in foreclosure. Housing Bailouts are False Hopes One of the more interesting phenomena observed during the bubble was the perpetuation of denial with rumors of homeowner bailouts. The bailout rumors were false hopes provided by the government to allow homeowners in hopeless situations a brief respite before they faced losing their homes in foreclosure. Flip That House - Houses Were Traded Like Commodities Commodities are items of value and uniform quality produced in large quantities and sold in an open market. Although every residential real estate property is unique, these properties became uniformly desired by investors because all real estate prices rose during the Great Housing Bubble. The commoditization of real estate and the active, open-market trading it inspires caused houses to lose their identity as places to live and call home. Houses became tradable stucco boxes similar to baseball playing cards where buying and selling had nothing to do with possession and use and everything to do with making money in the transaction. Fundamental House Value, What Are Houses Really Worth? The fundamental value of all housing prices is equivalent rents. Rents define the fundamental value of real estate because rental is a direct proxy for ownership; both rental and ownership provide for possession of property. Most people believe comparable sales define the value of real estate. In reality, comparable sales measure the collective foolishness of buyers who often have no idea what a property is really worth.

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