South Africa v Uruguay Betting tip and betting market analysis

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South Africa v Uruguay
Betting Market review

-Date: 16th June 7.30pm
-Venue: Pretoria
-Altitude: 1,370m
-Tv - RTE 2 & BBC 1

Asian Markets:
South Africa odds - Falling
Uruguay odds - Drifting
Change in the goals handicap indicates support for unders
Over 2.25 goal odds Shortening

Betting Exchange Markets
South Africa Odds - Drifting
Uruguay Odds - stable
Draw Odds - Flat
Over 2.5 goals - Rising
% Of Matched Bets
South Africa - 13%
Draw - 25%
Uruguay - 62%
Over 2.5 goals 8%
Injury News
There are no injury worries of note

Form:
South Africa's form is good with a recent record of 4-2-0, but some of the opposition is questionable
Since they didnt have to qualify there its hard to jude them other than their game against Mexico.
In that game they could easily have lost were it not for Khune
Uruguay's form is ok with a recent record of 3-2-1
Including a 0-0 draw with France in their opening game. It will be interesting to see how they cope with being the ones who have to attack
They qualified with a record of 6 wins 6 draws and 6 losses

Head to Head:
Uruguay are unbeaten against 2 previous meetings with South Africa, winning one and drawing one.

Goals Scored in Qualifying:
South Africa didnt have to qualify so there are no records for them.
They scored the opening goal of this years world cup and so far its been the best goal.
Uruguay got 32 goals in qualification letting in 21 in 18 games
This gives them an average of 1.77 goals scored per game, 1.16 goals conceeded per game

Ratings:
South Africa World Ranking: 83
v
Uruguay World Ranking: 16
South Africa ELO Ranking: 55
v
Uruguay ELO Ranking: 14

Streaks:
South Africa have only won two games against South American team in 13 encounters, failing to score in 6
4 of South Africas last 6 games at a world cup ahve ended in a fraw
Uruguay have drawn their last 3 world cup games

Probability
Calculated Probability ( Calculated on statistics and market activity)
South Africa - 23%
Draw - 31%
Uruguay - 56%
Implied Probability ( calculated based on odds)
South Africa - 29%
Draw - 31%
Uruguay 40%
In short this suggests that Uruguay odds good value even at current prices
It also implies that there is support for the draw at bookmakers.

Referee:
Massimo Busacca - Switzerland
95 international games
316 yellows, average of 3.33 per match
12 reds, AVE of 0.13 per match
10 penalties, AVE of 0.11 game

Suggestions:
This will be a tight game with the draw looking a good bet
No doubt the unders looks the more likely from here
On the Asian markets the support for South Africa is interesting and is worth noting

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