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Group F World Cup 2010 New Zealand v Slovakia Betting Preview

By: Will Martin

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New Zealand v Slovakia
Betting Stats

Date 15th June 12.30pm
Venue: Rustenburg
Altitude: 1,400m
Tv - RTE 2 & BBC 1

Asian Markets:
Change in Handicap indicates support for Sloakia
New zealand odds - shortening
Slovakia odds - drifting
Change in the goals handicap indicates support for unders
Over 2.5 goal odds flat

Bet Exchanges
New Zealand Odds - Shortening
Slovakia Odds - Rising
Draw Odds - Falling
Over 2.5 goals - Shortening
Where the money is going
New Zealand - 10%
Draw - 10%
Slovakia - 80%
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Injury News
Tim Brown should be fit for New Zealand
Skrtel is struggling to be fit for Slovakia

Current and Qualifying Form:
New Zealand's form is average but against questionable opposition
They qualified out of a very poor group and will struggle against the better teams in their group
Slovakia's form is also average
Qualified with a record of 7 wins 1 draw and 2 losses in a group containing Czech Republic

Head to Head:
This will be the first meeting of the two sides

Goals Scored in Qualifying:
New Zealand scored 15 goals in qualifying, conceding 5
This gives them an average of 2.5 goals scored and 0.83 conceded, but the quality of opposition was poor
Slovakia scored 22 goals in qualifying conceeding 10
This gives them an average of 2.2 goals scored per game, 1 goal conceeded per game

Rankings
New Zealand World Ranking: 78
v
Slovakia World Ranking: 34
New Zealand ELO Ranking: 74
v
Slovakia ELO Ranking: 48

Streaks:
New Zealand have never won a game out of Ocenania, 11 losses and 1 draw
They have never won a world cup game
Falied to score a single goal at last years Confederations Cup
This is Slovakia's 1st World Cup

Probability
Computed Probability (based on stats and market movements)
New Zealand - 23%
Draw - 14%
Slovakia - 63%
Implied Probability (based on available odds)
New Zealand - 11%
Draw - 25%
Slovakia 64%
In short this suggests that Slovakias odds are fairly priced
It also suggests that there is support for the draw at bookmakers.

Referee:
Jerome Damon - South Africa
43 international games
169 yellows, average of 3.93 per game
9 reds, average of 0.21 per game
7 penalties, average of 0.16 per game

Suggestions:
Hard to see a New Zealand win in all honesty.
I would look to the Slovakia on the Asian handicaps or the Draw no Bet market. Take a look at the links below.
A way to get good value, is to look at the half time/full time market where Slovakia to be winning at half time and full time is currently @ 5's. This market wont be going in play so there will be no potential to lay.

Look out for updates on Twitter closer to kick off and during the game as things will change massively

www.BetHelper.ie
www.twitter.com/bethelper
www.facebook.com/bethelper
www.youtube.com/bethelper

Article Source: http://depositarticles.com/

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