Frbiz Reports Temporarily With The Conditions Of Rubber Soared

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Recently, the rubber market attention, the weather extending from southwest China to Thailand and other Southeast Asian region as a whole, due to continuous drought raised concerns about increased market reduction, and thus domestic rubber futures trading out of last week's strong rally, But we still need to calmly analyze the possible impact of drought, but also domestic policy uncertainties, coupled with seasonal characteristics, of course, the slow recovery in the global automotive industry factors, I believe that not have short-term natural rubber rose conditions.

Drought affected different opinions, the degree of uncertainty cuts

Since last September the beginning, the rainfall on the obviously decreasing southwest, and into the spring, no noticeable improvement, which makes the spring season, the drought continues to escalate. Yunnan Province as the second largest rubber producing areas affected by drought is inevitable, in early March when the New Year opening knife cutting test in previous years, only glue 1 / 3. The recent drought has extended to areas of Thailand, Thailand's 76 provinces, according to statistics there are 36 government suffered a serious drought, is expected to give nearly 2 million hectares of farmland losses, because Thailand is the world's largest rubber producing country, therefore significantly increase the market worried about the mentality.

Specifically, we analyze the impact of drought conditions, natural rubber production in Yunnan in 2009 about 30 million tons, 20% -30% if the cut shall be 60 000 -9 tons. According to estimated data ANRPC, natural rubber planting area in China this year will increase from 25,000 to 1,005,000 hectares, the total output also increased from last year's 645,000 tons to 680,000 tons, and the State Reserve last year, more than 10 million tons of low purchasing and storage natural rubber may be added to the market at any time, so the overall domestic supply and demand will not be nervous. Furthermore, although the drought areas in Thailand accounted for half of the country, but mainly concentrated in the arid north and northeast, the main rubber producing areas in Thailand located in the south, so affected or too small, and ANRPC recently published 2010 annual member still an increase of 6% to 9.5 million tons.

In addition, the recent weather in Southwest China have also improved slightly in recent days in Yunnan Xishuangbanna rubber parts of the main producing up to 10-20 mm of rainfall. According to the weather, in the next 10 days, rainfall will increase significantly, help to ease the drought in Southwest, and mid-April will gradually enter the area after the rainy season, so expect the worst drought in the basic past, the final yield of rubber or small than expected.

If we brought in recent years, commodity market speculation the weather market, almost without exception, are short-lived pattern. China snow crisis in early 2008, the agricultural market is so; June 2008 floods in the United States a century birth of the corn market only lasted half a month; of drought in North China in early 2009 to promote the wheat market remains short-term behavior. Therefore, we expect this year's dry weather, natural rubber and long-term trend is still difficult to lead.

Policy is still not completely free surface pressure

Despite the recent market expectations of interest rate has dropped, but the policy the pace of contraction of liquidity has not stopped the central bank in January 12 and February 12th consecutive increase in the deposit reserve ratio, and in March three weeks before the capital return 350 billion yuan, up more than a reserve of strength, show management's concerns about inflation increase. In addition, the February CPI up 2.7%, close to the red line of 3%, so interest rate policy may be imminent, the pressure of the market has not fully released.

In addition, in mid-April is the time of introduction of important macroeconomic data, which will directly affect the introduction of the policy; and April 16 will be the United States report on China's exchange rate problem is time, if the United States to China as a currency manipulator States, the expectation of RMB appreciation, or increase again, which imported the domestic natural rubber prices mainly negative.
Pick-up or slow down the global automotive industry

Since the financial crisis was obviously against the global auto industry, but the market alone to be a star in China, became the world's largest sales country, but in February this year, sales dropped by more than 25% of the chain, while the national industrial policy still has a strong auto industry support, and later there are new energy vehicles will be introduced subsidies, but the apparent domestic auto stocks reached 190,000, the pressure began to show, is expected to post growth will slow down. The view from the domestic tire industry, it's more difficult case because the U.S. safeguard the impact of monthly domestic tire production since last September's drop gradually to 60 million in February of this year's 45 million are expected to remain under short-term domestic tire industry difficulties.

The international automotive industry speed of recovery is slow, the U.S. market, more than a year, only the government in August last year, "TM" under the policy to stimulate sales of more than 1 million monthly, but in recent months has been maintained at a low level of 700,000, while the Greek problem is caused secondary market bottom on Europe and the United States concerns about the economy, therefore, expected recovery of the international automotive industry is still relatively long road.

Article Source: http://depositarticles.com/

I am a professional editor from China Suppliers, and my work is to promote a free online trade platform. www.frbiz.com/ contain a great deal of information about leather choker,portable clothes rack,rainbow leather sandals, welcome to visit!

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