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Frbiz Reports National Supply Gap 3.1 Million Tons Of Rapeseed

By: frbiz


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Acreage reduction, cold air, leading to yield reduction in 2010, the National rapeseed supply is 3.1 million tons is expected to be gaps in the latter part of the price, rose to 8500 yuan rapeseed oil. Recent bolting and flowering oilseed rape is a critical period, the weather conditions will play an important role in yield of oilseed rape.

Hubei rapeseed planted area decreased by 5%, 10% of the country is expected to super -
It is understood that the area under cultivation declined and climate causes yield decline was caused by the supply of rapeseed this year, the main reason for the gap.

In Jingzhou province, Jingmen the main growing areas such as rape, after investigation, 17, Mailyard Futures Brokerage Co. analyst Wang Chunquan expect rape growing area in our province there may be about 5% rate of decline.
There are three main reasons: "First, rapeseed income below that of other crops. Second, the labor structure affect the cultivation. With the marked increase in the number of young adults migrant workers, Abandoned increased. Third, the impact of cultivation land , this phenomenon is most obvious in urban and rural junction. "

Wang Chunquan introduction, "This year's drought in the southwest region, only 15% of the cut margin to determine this year's national rate of rape cultivation decreased by more than 10 percent, according to 7.2 million hectares nationwide in 2009 terms, in 2010 roughly 640 national acreage million hectares. "

In addition to acreage, climate reason may be due to reduced yields, but also predict the main basis for rapeseed supply gap. In early March the cold air southward, affecting Jingzhou, Huang, Jiujiang, Jiangxi, rapeseed production in the region.
Most of these areas are currently in the Bolting to rape flowering period, the weather conditions will play an important role in yield of oilseed rape. Wang Chunquan said, but also continue to focus on the end of March and early April weather, but a modest decline in yields appears more likely.
Rapeseed oil prices rose to 8500 yuan read / ton

For the overall availability of rapeseed this year, Wang Chunquan said: "As the area is reduced by almost 10%, yields may be slightly reduced, making the supply of rapeseed this year will be reduced by about 1.3 million tons; addition, the state restrictions on rapeseed imports will also reduce the
supply of rapeseed on the market. "

It is understood that, while rapeseed crushing capacity of Hubei province and the country in 2007 has been a serious surplus, but the past three years, new or expanded oil plant of the news reports.

Wang Chunquan is expected this year, squeezing oil plant processing capacity than in 2009 will increase by more than 1.8 million tons, taking 1.3 million tons of rapeseed cut the gap at 310 million tons, rapeseed obvious contradiction between supply and demand, the acquisition may increase during the buying behavior of rapeseed .

In terms of price, Wang Chunquan said: "Jingmen Qianjiang district, said security at the end of cooking-oil factory price 2.1 yuan / kg; Jingzhou area oil refinery for not less than 2.0 yuan. According to the present 2200 yuan in Hubei Province, rapeseed meal / ton, vegetable oil out of oil rate of 35 % calculation, then the oil plant processing costs in its 8200 yuan / ton at the top. "
"In the State Reserve, the state is currently close to 1.9 million tons oil reserves, national reserves of oil, the cost of 8300 yuan / ton at the top. National selling price will be not less than 8500 yuan / ton."

However, the business department of Fuzhou Mailyard futures analyst Yang, deputy Wangjiang also reminded: As the soybean oil and vegetable oil has a strong substitution effect, if soybean oil prices fall, then the vegetable oil alone may rise, is not much.

For the above, Wang Chunquan proposed oil refinery on the one hand should be actively in the futures on arbitrage-related hedging concern for March 31 the U.S. Department of Agriculture report on the impact of soybean and thus the impact of soybean oil; the other hand, should focus on the import of food Seed dynamics, at an appropriate time processing of imported rapeseed crushing.

Article Source: http://depositarticles.com/

I am a professional editor from China Suppliers, and my work is to promote a free online trade platform. www.frbiz.com/ contain a great deal of information about knife proof vest,coffee table chinese,office chair wheels, welcome to visit!

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