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Calling BS on Tim Donaghy

By: Rich Allen

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Calling BS on Tim Donaghy

If you haven’t seen it by now, you have to check out Deadspin.com’s excerpts from the new Tim Donaghy book. In the passages, the dishonored former NBA referee makes some pretty shocking, yet specific, claims concerning how officials would go out of their way to sway games. Basically he says the refs had no integrity and would twist around with outcomes on stuff as trivial as who didn’t have to tip the ball boys for bringing them pizza after the game.

Yet the most volatile parts of the book are where he names names, calling out particular referees and how they like tomanipulate games. He mentions Dick Bavetta, who was a ref in what most people observe as the worst officiated game in NBA history: Gm. 6 of the 2002 Western Conference Finals between the Sacramento Kings and L.A. Lakers. And while that claim is up for debate, he also makes this specific allegation against Bavetta:


The real reason that I bet the losing team was that I was just about

certain they would cover the spread, no matter how badly they

played. That is where Dick Bavetta comes into the picture.

From my earliest involvement with Bavetta, I learned that he likes

to keep games close, and then when a team gets down by double-

digit points, he helps the players save face. He accomplishes this

act of mercy by quietly, and frequently, blowing the whistle on

the team that’s having the better night. Team fouls suddenly

become one-sided between the contestants, and the score begins

to tighten up. That’s the way Dick Bavetta referees a game - and

everyone in the league knew it.

OK, so working off of that notion it should mean that if you wage on underdogs in all the games Bavetta officiated you should have positively cleaned up. I’m not suggesting you would win every game; that would be silly. But the way Donaghy describes it, he made a killing with this betting notion.

I was curious so I did some study and the results were pretty damn compelling that Donaghy is full of it. If you don’t know, you need to hit 52.7% of your bets to make a profit if you’re betting with regular 10 cent juice ($110 to win $100). Donaghy was forced out after the 2006-07 season so I looked at the 10 year period leading up to that time and here’s what I found.

Over that 10 year stretch there were only 2 seasons that returned a lucrative percentage betting on underdogs in games that Bavetta officiated! Those were the seasons of 1998-99 when ‘dogs came back at a 55.7% clip and also the 2001-02 when they hit 57.1%. For those 2 years, that’s not bad money. But that was it, not one other season returned at least a 52.7%. In fact, you would have lost your shirt in just about every other season following this philosophy.

The 1999-2000 season ‘dogs hit 48%. In 2000-01, it was precisely 50%. In the 2002-2003 season, the underdogs only hit 46%. The year after that it was 45% and the year after that only 41%. You’d go broke with that sort of strike rate.

I believe this small bit of study disproves the ‘Bavetta Theory’ laid out by Donaghy and calls into question the veracity of his other claims. I’m not saying the NBA should be off the hook, and the refereeing is amazingly bad occasionally, but we have to question whether the rest of Donaghy’s information iscredible.

If he lied about this, we can’t take his other charges on face value either.

Rich Allen

http://www.sportsbettingprofessor.com

Article Source: http://depositarticles.com/

My name is Rich Allen, owner of the Sports Betting Professor website www.sportsbettingprofessor.com 2 years ago we hired an actual PhD Statistician to develop a quantitative system to win constantly betting on American Football, NBA Basketball, College Football and Major League Baseball. Our results have been stellar. Hear proof from my triumphant partners by visiting the website or go directly to my video at www.youtube.com/w

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