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Brazil v North Korea World Cup Preview and Betting Tips

By: Will Martin

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Brazil v North Korea
Betting Tips

Date 15th June 7.30pm
Venue: Ellis Park J'Burg
Altitude: 1,753m
Tv - RTE 2 & ITV 1

Asian Markets:
Change in Handicap indicates support for North Korea (+2.5)
Brazil odds - Flat
North Korea odds - Shortening
Change in the goals handicap indicates support for overs
Over 3 goal odds - stable

Bet Exchanges
Brazil Odds - Flat
North Korea Odds - Shortening
Draw Odds - Flat
Over 2.5 goals - stable
Where the money is going
Brazil - 98%
Draw - 1%
North Korea - 1%
Over 2.5 goals 65%
Injuries
Julio Cesar should be fit enough to start in goal

Form:
Brazil's form is very good with a recent record of 5-1-0
They qualified out of a poor group with a record of 9 wins 7 draws and 2 losses
North Korea's form is terrible with a recent record of 0-2-4
Qualified with a record of 3 wins 3 draws and 2 losses
Previous Meetings
This will be the first meeting of the two sides

Goals Scored in Qualifying:
Brazil scored 33 goals in qualifying, conceding 11
This gives them an average of 1.83 goals scored and 0.61 conceded
North Korea scored 7 goals in qualifying conceeding 5
This gives them an average of 0.875 goals scored per game, 0.625 goals conceeded per game

Ratings:
Brazil World Ranking: 1
v
North Korea World Ranking: 105
Brazil ELO Ranking: 1
v
North Korea ELO Ranking: 79

Streaks:
Brazil have kept clean sheets in 7 of their last 11 games at th World Cup
15 wins out of 15 against non European or non South American sides in the world cup, 13 clean sheets
Luis Fabiano scored 9 goals in 9 starts during qualification
They are the only side to ever have won the World cup outside their own continent
Probabilities:
Computed Probability (based on stats and market movements)
Brazil - 85%
Draw - 8%
North Korea - 7%
Implied Probability (based on available odds)
Brazil - 90%
Draw - 7%
North Korea 3%
In short this suggests that Brazil are good value despite current prices
It also suggests that the draw is the next likely outcome, however minimal.

Referee:
Viktor Kassai - Hungary
52 international games
200 yellows, average of 3.85 per game
8 reds, average of 0.15 per game
13 penalties, average of 0.28 per game

Suggestions:
There can only be one winner in this game and its no surprise who.
To get value you could look to the half/full time markets but even that looks like poor value
Obviously overs come into it but you could look to over 3.5 to get some value
The penalty market also looks appealling, there has only been 1 penalty so far and with the quick Brazilian foot work there could be on.
At the moment it looks great value at 3.6
Look out for updates on Twitter closer to kick off and during the game as things will change massively
Look in the description below to get links to the discussed markets.

www.BetHelper.ie
www.twitter.com/bethelper
www.facebook.com/bethelper
www.youtube.com/bethelper

Article Source: http://depositarticles.com/

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